tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post4295329560368442622..comments2024-03-28T16:30:25.456+00:00Comments on The Pub Curmudgeon: The death of passionCurmudgeonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-543258880230503352010-10-09T22:32:54.631+01:002010-10-09T22:32:54.631+01:00But pub prices have fallen much further than house...But pub prices have fallen much further than house prices, haven't they?Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-73736829456638856062010-10-05T17:09:09.289+01:002010-10-05T17:09:09.289+01:00And why have pub property values fallen over the p...<i>And why have pub property values fallen over the past three years, I wonder?</i><br /><br />Er, it's a bit out there, but is is it for the same reasons as domestic house prices? Or are you claiming my house has also devalued because of the smoking ban?Sat In A Pubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08123038980796000837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-74065967285796765892010-10-03T11:30:37.531+01:002010-10-03T11:30:37.531+01:00See, it doesn't really matter whether the decl...See, it doesn't really matter whether the decline is related to the smoking ban. That would be just proximate cause. The "structural" issues (some particular to pubco, some all over the industry); overvaluation of the property portfolio, high endebtedness, exposure to regulatory change, an inflexible offering in a changing market, competition, etc. These created a sector that was highly vulnerable. So much of the operating profit was being sucked out for debt service that many "marginal" boozers had been limping along for years with little return for the tenants.<br />If you're right, if the smoking ban <b>triggered</b> a sudden decline in business - this merely underlines how <b>fragile</b> the industry had been allowed to become. Perhaps instead of crying over spilt milk, if we really care about pubs, we should look at how we might get a stronger industry that doesn't depend on exporting costs to wider society, or extracting profit from the pockets of the less well off and converting it into banker's bonuses.StringersBeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12573068197944669997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-9279331631499200202010-10-02T16:04:57.221+01:002010-10-02T16:04:57.221+01:00And why have pub property values fallen over the p...And why have pub property values fallen over the past three years, I wonder?Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-9248410679072052552010-10-02T11:24:05.672+01:002010-10-02T11:24:05.672+01:00Yep, reely, it was always the cash coming in from ...Yep, reely, it was always the cash coming in from "disposals", that gave the big pubcos the "debt service coverage" that kept the banks happy to lend. But with rents contributing (I gather) less than 30% of income, they're doubly vunerable to declining sales and slumping property values. You might consider the example you introduced a good one showing the lessor <b>unable</b> to adjust rents in a way that would enable the lessee to make any profit. That's clearly "broken". But there's a strong argument that the underlying problem is the over-valuation of the properties in the first place.StringersBeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12573068197944669997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-15447359699665237222010-10-02T08:57:47.555+01:002010-10-02T08:57:47.555+01:00But Mudgie - the business model that underwrote th...But Mudgie - the business model that underwrote the leases and thus set the rents did!Tandlemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06804499573827044693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-6137810720169722052010-10-01T23:48:59.615+01:002010-10-01T23:48:59.615+01:00As the article says, "It is understood that t...As the article says, "It is understood that the liquidator has returned six Enterprise leases and a Mitchells & Butlers franchise," so Passionate wouldn't have had any exposure to property values.Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-82788094644347994312010-10-01T17:25:13.827+01:002010-10-01T17:25:13.827+01:00D'ye not think the slump in property values ha...D'ye not think the slump in property values has got something (everything) to do with this? It's not so much that these pub-owning groups are "maintaining struggling outlets by asset disposal", but that in many cases this <b>was</b> the business model. Borrow shedloads from the jolly bankers, secured on the pubs - sell off the plums for housing - service the debt with the proceeds - bingo! you've got a (smaller) pub estate for next-to-nothing. I feel for people who've lost jobs, or their locals, but this is the kind of thing that's got us all into this sh*t isn't it?<br /><br /><i>This is not a comment on "Passionate" who, for all I know were genuinely committed to running genuine pubs.</i>StringersBeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12573068197944669997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-37430357311720286242010-09-30T13:53:28.083+01:002010-09-30T13:53:28.083+01:00I too am sceptical of the rhetoric of so-called Re...I too am sceptical of the rhetoric of so-called Red Ed; now that's a laugh in itself. I posted on <a href="http://rednev-rearm.blogspot.com/2010/09/government-rejects-minimum-pricing-in.html" rel="nofollow">my own blog</a> (as you know, since you addded your own comment) that rejection of minimum pricing (profits to retailers) was not done for altruistic reasons, seeing that no party has proposed scrapping the beer tax escalator (extra cash to Treasury). <br /><br />I'll wait to see what actual policies he comes up with, then I'll wait to see how energetically he pushes them in Parliament. But Opposition pledges often have little value, forgotten when an election is won ~ like the LibDems and the VAT increase, which will attack pubs next January.Neville Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10923209266005338452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-90607410170949908932010-09-29T22:54:10.595+01:002010-09-29T22:54:10.595+01:00Now that the banks are calling in
risky financing...Now that the banks are calling in <br />risky financing,at least 7 major<br />institutions are ready (after Oct 23)to put the nail in the coffin<br />of at least 5500 pubs and other <br />venues offering poor return.<br />As we all know ,even the large groups are maintaining struggling outlets by asset disposal.<br />Some stakeholders were holding out for a possible relaxation of <br />current restrictions in a July<br />review.That is foreby ,now the axe will really swing especially in<br />Jan-March 2011Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-47958209589141332822010-09-29T22:43:22.625+01:002010-09-29T22:43:22.625+01:00A really sad day for pubs.
"Wiltshire-based ...A really sad day for pubs.<br /><br />"Wiltshire-based operator "slaughtered" by smoking ban"<br /><br />http://www.thepublican.com/story.asp?storycode=68046Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com