tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post3264357503615938957..comments2024-03-29T08:01:51.705+00:00Comments on The Pub Curmudgeon: She would say that, wouldn’t she?Curmudgeonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-17271407247555374132011-03-19T22:21:26.305+00:002011-03-19T22:21:26.305+00:00@Murray Earle: the counter in the side bar does no...@Murray Earle: the counter in the side bar does not claim that all those pubs have been closed by the smoking ban. It is just a statistic of the total number of pubs that have closed. Now, I remember the ban enthusiasts claiming that it would open up a new golden age of non-smokers flocking into pubs. That, quite obviously, didn't happen. So, in effect, what the counter is recording is something that didn't happen.Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-82840608354196768772011-03-18T15:46:39.687+00:002011-03-18T15:46:39.687+00:00@Curmudgeon
The Google accounts etc have password...@Curmudgeon<br /><br />The Google accounts etc have password issues with me.<br /><br />BTW Dr. Murray Earle works for the Scottish Parliament.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01230095905049804075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-53962666049015045522011-03-18T13:25:26.391+00:002011-03-18T13:25:26.391+00:00There was also an analysis done by CGI Strategy wh...There was also an analysis done by CGI Strategy which demonstrated a marked "above trend" increase in the rate of pub closures associated with the smoking ban.<br /><br />@Dave Atherton - Dave, if you use the "Name/URL" option when making a comment, you can associate your own name with it even if you don't have a Blogger account, rather than having it appear as "Anonymous".Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-67196719216021710222011-03-18T13:19:39.652+00:002011-03-18T13:19:39.652+00:00From Dave Atherton
@Dr. Murray Earle
As my artic...From Dave Atherton<br /><br />@Dr. Murray Earle<br /><br />As my article goes on to say an analysis of pub closures during equally bad or worse recessions. <br /><br />"There are alternative explanations – the rate of closures would be expected to increase during an economic slowdown, for example. Yet the closure rate quadrupled in 2007 before the onset of the recession. Moreover, the closure rate in 2008 and 2009, at around 3% per year, has been far higher than in previous recessions. For example, in the deep recession of 1980-82 the average was 0.86%, while in 1990-92 it was 1.5%."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-71024997392523336762011-03-15T23:29:00.687+00:002011-03-15T23:29:00.687+00:00"I hope that in 10 years’ time we will be muc..."I hope that in 10 years’ time we will be much closer to the situation where smoking is no longer as socially acceptable. <b>That’s what this ban is about - cultural change</b>." - <a href="http://www.bath.ac.uk/news/insider/pdf/apr07.pdf" rel="nofollow">Dr Linda Bauld, April. 2007.</a><br />It would seem the messenger is far from impartial when assessing if the smoking ban will have any adverse affects on anything let <a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PTNXHvy4OkY/TJJRiXYzS3I/AAAAAAAAAFU/kQv7nTf394g/s1600/pubsclosingUKandEire.jpg" rel="nofollow">alone pubs</a> and <a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_PTNXHvy4OkY/TKzrcO6UJJI/AAAAAAAAAFc/PY-QjbjRyh4/s1600/num_somky_drinkers.jpg" rel="nofollow">the customers that use them.</a>Fredrik Eichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09985306468872702882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-6367759615131220192011-03-15T19:22:24.939+00:002011-03-15T19:22:24.939+00:00Well, I don't think there's much chance of...Well, I don't think there's much chance of that, but it's not hard to guess what new line of work she'd be likely to take up.Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-1562555652264050622011-03-15T18:47:58.602+00:002011-03-15T18:47:58.602+00:00But surely, if we all stopped smoking, Professor B...But surely, if we all stopped smoking, Professor Bauld would be looking for a new line of work - so in this instance we actually do have a turkey voting for xmas, what?StringersBeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12573068197944669997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-61784073035928750912011-03-15T13:41:29.526+00:002011-03-15T13:41:29.526+00:00Given her declared allegiances it would appear her...Given her declared allegiances it would appear her specialism is <i><b>anti</b></i>smoking.Curmudgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02558747878308766840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-47121330119401491472011-03-15T13:05:55.762+00:002011-03-15T13:05:55.762+00:00"... no evidence of any obvious effect of smo..."... no evidence of any obvious effect of smoke-free legislation on the hospitality industry in England".<br /><br />"... a longer post-legislation follow-up period is required to more robustly assess whether smoke-free legislation in the UK has had a significant impact on bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues".<br /><br />"... amy impact of smoke-free legislation on the sector is minimal".<br /><br />All quotes from the report. Minimal impact, <i> positive or negative </i>, mainly due to the paucity of data.<br /><br />One that did catch my eye - international research that showed no significant decrease in bar patronage post-ban. Which is supported by Mark Daniels' observation.<br /><br />btw - I assume the report is DoH funded as it's a review of health legislation impact. And maybe the reason why Professor Bauld "only ever" researches smoking (which isn't actually the case) is that it's her specialism?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03387325466589229898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-62621539327201043032011-03-15T12:21:34.981+00:002011-03-15T12:21:34.981+00:00I think you may be shooting the messenger here.
...I think you may be shooting the messenger here. <br /><br />That this looks different on the ground to one pub landlord is statistically irrelevant. As a real ale drinker (and smoker, BTW), I find your addition of a link telling me that “Pubs closed in England since 1st July 2007” (7460) to be a lamentable statistic. But as a researcher I have to ask what else happened after July 2007, and the abbreviated answer is this:<br /><br />5 July 2007: The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.75%. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2007/070.htm <br /><br />July 2007: Bear Stearns fails in its bail-out attempt<br /><br />August 2007: The European Central Bank pumps 95bn euros (£63bn) into the banking market to try to improve liquidity .<br /><br />14 September 2007, Northern Rock sought and received a liquidity support facility from the Bank of England following problems in the credit markets caused by the US subprime mortgage financial crisis.<br /><br />1 October 2007: Swiss bank UBS announces losses of $3.4bn from sub-prime related investments. <br /><br />30 October 2007: Merrill Lynch's chief resigns after the investment bank unveils a $7.9bn exposure to bad debt.<br /><br />9 January 2008: World Bank predicts that global economic growth will slow in 2008, as the credit crunch hits the richest nations. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7177397.stm<br /><br />13 October 2008: Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and HBOS have a total of £37bn injected into them. <br /><br />And so on …<br /><br />Turning to logic - and with apologies to Bertie Russell - when two events occur simultaneously, no more can be said than there is a positive correlation between the two. Establishing a causal link between the two requires statistical evidence that A would not have occurred but for the existence of B. Because this is absent, events A and B are independent, particularly in the face of the simultaneous occurrence of event C. <br /><br />In other words, for your argument to hold water, you require a statistically significant fall in sales, that (obviously) cannot at least in part be accounted for by the so-called ‘credit crunch’, in which case you might be onto something. <br /><br />All of which might just lead any researcher worth their salt to opine that fall in trade had more to do with the credit crunch than the smoking ban, where evidence for the latter is anecdotal at best. Oh, and where statistically significant evidence for the converse is relatively abundant, for example, http://www.bmj.com/content/342/bmj.d300.extract<br /><br />Dr Murray Earle<br />Researcher and Writer (medical law)Dr Murray Earlenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-80304042698871149112011-03-15T07:40:02.236+00:002011-03-15T07:40:02.236+00:00Totally off topic, I'm sorry.
Thanks for your ...Totally off topic, I'm sorry.<br />Thanks for your review on 'Summer Lightening' some time ago.<br />I bought some yesterday (still on offer) and for the first time in years drank something other than Guinness.<br />Its back on the list, superb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-57951593907864792442011-03-14T21:54:29.952+00:002011-03-14T21:54:29.952+00:00Anna Gilmore is apparantly funded by CRUK using mo...Anna Gilmore is apparantly funded by CRUK using money people thought thatthey had donated for real research into cancer. You know, a bit like the stuff Paul Whitley does in a nearby building. <br /><br />http://science.cancerresearchuk.org/research/who-and-what-we-fund/browse-by-location/bath/<br /><br />So is another familiar figure<br /><br />http://science.cancerresearchuk.org/research/who-and-what-we-fund/browse-by-location/london/action-on-smoking-health/deborah-arnott-1500Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-40144018549394114242011-03-14T21:17:01.644+00:002011-03-14T21:17:01.644+00:00Dave - you may chuckle at the BMA wine club
but
t...Dave - you may chuckle at the BMA wine club<br />but<br /><br />this http://www.bath.ac.uk/health/tobacco/index.html could be the cause of long lasting nausea!<br />It would be so interesting to discover where this witches' coven get funding for their impartial. science based, predetermined agenda.Xopherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01387364739989208360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-68091875942871906672011-03-14T20:38:06.709+00:002011-03-14T20:38:06.709+00:00From Dave Atherton
Well CM you can see why I find...From Dave Atherton<br /><br />Well CM you can see why I find the health lobby such a bunch of liars on passive smoking. Bauld is a colleague at Bath of Dr. Anna Gilmore who fabricated the reduction in heart attacks in England, and have co authored papers together.<br /><br />If you fancy a chuckle her is the URL of Dr. Vivienne Nathanson's doctor colleague's wine club at the BMA.<br /><br /> <br />http://www.bbr.com/product-81713-the-charles-hastings-wine-clubAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5623537812609722663.post-43586469228947872442011-03-14T20:33:13.695+00:002011-03-14T20:33:13.695+00:00If you check up on Linda Bauld on the net (as I ha...If you check up on Linda Bauld on the net (as I have done), you will find that she only <i>ever</i> conducts 'research' into anti-smoking issues. She is a member of the UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies, IIRC. As such, everything she ever produces has a pre-determined outcome she is paid to fulfil.<br /><br />There are quite a <a href="http://dickpuddlecote.blogspot.com/2010/02/he-who-pays-piper.html" rel="nofollow">number of them around</a>. The alcohol industry should look to identify the same kind of shyster being employed to produce junk science against them too. Who knows? They may well turn out to be the same people at some point.<br /><br />One thing you can be sure of with anything pumped out by Bauld, science it certainly isn't, and scientist <i>she</i> certainly isn't.Dick Puddlecotehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01481866882188932892noreply@blogger.com