Apocalypse now

Some very pointed, but sadly all too true, comments here from Pete Robinson about the depressingly high number of pub closures taking place at the moment. This is happening all over the country, yet, as he says, the national media have so far been surprisingly quiet about it – possibly because few commentators get a view of the trade outside a limited number of areas they regularly visit.

Obviously there are a number of factors at work here, including:

(a) the wet summer
(b) the economic downturn
(c) negative publicity about “binge drinking”
(d) the unrealistic expectations of pub companies

However, there can be little doubt that the smoking ban is what has pushed many once-thriving pubs over the cliff.

It has now gone way beyond just a few marginal or struggling pubs closing their doors. At the current rate of attrition, the pattern of licensed trade that we have been familiar with for thirty years will before too long be a thing of the past.

Brown barred

Interesting report here that 105 Yorkshire pubs have decided to ban the Prime Minister from their premises in protest against the effects of the smoking ban. Whatever the government may have hoped, this issue just is not going away. It’s doubtful whether our gloomy PM will be too much inconvenienced personally as he gives the impression of never having enjoyed a night in the pub in his life.

Two drinks and you’re out?

It’s been widely reported today that Wetherspoon’s are applying a policy of allowing adults accompanying children to have a maximum of two alcoholic drinks. At first sight this appeared to be another example of political correctness gone mad, implying that anyone having a third drink is an unfit parent.

But, in reality, it makes a lot of sense. Wetherspoon’s only admit children if both the child and the accompanying adult are having a meal, and understandably they don’t want family groups lingering for prolonged drinking sessions. It would be a good thing if more pub operators took the view that they were not running licensed crèches.

Evidence continues to mount

Here’s yet more evidence of the severe decline in the pub trade post smoking ban, with a report of sales being 7.3% down since July of this year. That’s far more than normal seasonal fluctuations. Even food sales are down. Anecdotal evidence locally is that many licensees of the smaller wet-led pubs are really struggling and a number of closures can be expected come January and February.

Food not a panacea

Some salutary words for the licensed trade here. As I've said before, the idea that food sales will be the saviour of pubs in the post smoking ban era is a myth.

Windy weather

The large-scale consumption of beer makes flatulence a perennial problem in pubs, but I've never heard of anyone actually being banned from doing it before.

Enjoy it while you can

Transport minister Jim Fitzpatrick, in launching the annual Christmas drink-driving campaign, has stated that the government will be consulting (again) early in the New Year as to whether to lower the drink-drive limit. This will come as a sickening blow to licensees and pubgoers who were massively relieved when this threat to their livelihood and their social lives was seen off a few years back.

Obviously this has to be fought tooth and nail, but in a climate of increasingly irrational anti-drink hysteria I fear that this time it is likely to happen.

So enjoy those pubs while you can, because once this comes in the English pub as we currently know it will become a thing of the past outside a small urban rump.

The new smoke

At last there’s a recognition of reality in December’s What’s Brewing with a front-page headlining article recognising the strong links between the campaigns against tobacco and alcohol. This really does leave those sadly deluded CAMRA members who thought the smoking ban might usher in a new dawn for pubs looking very silly.

Back in July, I wrote:

Even if you abhor smoking, if you enjoy going to pubs and drinking alcohol you are sadly deluding yourself if you think this has nothing to do with you. In the US, anti-drink groups are now running seminars on the implications of tobacco legislation for alcohol policy, something that inevitably is going to spread to this side of the Atlantic. Over here, respected medical professionals have expressed the view that further curbs on alcohol sales and promotion are a logical follow-on to the smoking ban. The anti-smoking lobby are basically the same people, with the same motivation and the same funding, as the anti-alcohol lobby. If you claim to support pubs and yet are in favour of the smoking ban, you are taking a very naïve and short-sighted view.

It seems that CAMRA has now belatedly woken up to this. But will there be a concerted, high-profile campaign against the New Puritanism? I wouldn’t hold your breath – it’s more likely that the membership will return to their favourite pastime of arguing over how many angels can stand on the head of a pin.

Unintended consequences strike again

Well, what a surprise! Apparently following the smoking ban, more people are having their drinks spiked, not for sexual assualt, but to steal their belongings. The list of adverse consequences from this law gets ever longer.

Rose tinted glasses

There have been a number of articles recently such as this one by Roger Protz and this one by Ian Marchant suggesting that the independent brewery and pub sectors are in rude health. For some businesses this may well be true, as it is still possible to prosper even within a market that is declining overall.

However, for the industry as a whole, the situation is totally different, with pubs closing at an alarming rate and beer volumes nationally falling off a cliff. For more and more people, going to the pub is becoming an activity that is simply irrelevant to their lives. In this context, celebrating your cosy corner that is for the time being protected against the storm begins to look like dangerous self-delusion. Unless the wider issues are robustly addressed, before long the remaining havens will be swept away too.

Make your voice heard

I would urge all readers to sign this petition on the Prime Minister's website opposing the proposals of the so-called Alcohol Health Alliance for an increase in alcohol taxation:

The description reads:

We call on the British Chancellor of the Exchequer to call time on any plans to raise alcohol tax as being lobbied for by the Alcohol Health Alliance.

An alliance of health campaigners is calling on the Government to increase tax on alcohol by as much as 20-30% as a way to solve binge drinking in Britain.

We at the Morning Advertiser, the newspaper for the pub trade, think this would have disastrous results for pubs and drinkers - and do nothing to reduce alcohol-related harm.

The UK already has some of the highest duty rates on alcohol in Europe and evidence from high-tax Scandinavian countries has shown that increased duty does NOT lead to a reduction in heavy drinking.

Higher alcohol tax would be extremely damaging for pubs, which are struggling with the impact of the smoking ban, excessive red tape and competition from supermarkets that can offer beer for as little as 22p a can.

It would also penalise the majority of drinkers who consume alcohol responsibly and don't want to be burnt every time they order at the bar. Higher alcohol tax would be bad for business, bad for the drinker and bad for Britain - let's resist it!

Reaching the tipping point?

Some time ago, I questioned whether the giant pub companies really constituted a viable long-term business model. So far, they have proved surprisingly resilient, but now we have a growing recession in the pub trade, there are plenty of signs that the wheel is coming off the cart. The author of this article certainly believes the tipping point is fast approaching.

I know that locally there are a number of pub company owned pubs that have been closed for weeks running into months, with “To Let” signs prominently displayed. I wouldn’t have said any of them were unviable, but that state of affairs must indicate severe difficulty in finding new tenants to pay over-optimistic rents. And, the longer a pub is shut, the more of its customers leach away elsewhere or take to drinking at home. It is notable how you never see pubs belonging to family breweries or small pub companies closed for any length of time.

Domino theory

Well, I’ve said it many times in the past, but here’s Mark Hastings, communication director at the British Beer & Pub Association, saying it too – the anti-tobacco and anti-alcohol campaigns are two sides of the same coin:

Hastings claimed many lobbyists working for public health groups, who campaigned on tobacco, had moved across to focus on alcohol.

“The same skills set, the same tactics, the same people are involved with the issue of alcohol lobbying, that what’s gives it the profile it now has,” he said.

“Alcohol is the big issue at the moment and it’s absolutely essential that our industry gears up for what is going to be a considerable battle over the next few months and years.”

Let that be a reproach to all the short-sighted fools within CAMRA who thought the smoking ban might just be a good thing.

Drunk for £1?

Yet another misleading anti-drink scare story from the Daily Mail. Yes, you can buy cans of “value lager” for 22p – but they are generally extremely weak (typically around 2% ABV) and you would have to drink a damn sight more than 4 or 5 to get anything remotely resembling “drunk”. It might be more realistic to focus on the 3-litre PET bottles of own-brand cider available for around £2.50 that typically contain more units per pound than the cheapo lagers.

Who are you calling fat?

There have been a number of recent reports focusing on Britain’s so-called “obesity epidemic”. But, as Professor Patrick Basham points out, the nature of the problem has been seriously misrepresented. Yes, there are a lot more seriously obese people, but the average adult weighs only a pound or two more than those of a generation ago. Statistical extrapolations that half the population will be obese in 25 years’ time are simply incredible. Yet again, “we are all guilty” stands in the way of effective public policy.