Thursday, 12 December 2019

Feeling a bit cross?

Today we are going to the polls in a general election for the third time in less than five years. As on previous occasions, I created an opinion poll in the sidebar, which I have also mentioned in the text of posts for those reading the blog on a mobile device. The results are shown below.

The poll was created before the announcement that the Brexit Party were not going to contest any Conservative-held seats, so the results won’t be representative of the likely outcome. However, given that a large number of people had already voted, I didn’t think it appropriate to start again from scratch. The original poll together with the associated comments can be seen here.

Running these figures through the Electoral Calculus model, and eliminating the others and non-voters, gives the following numbers of seats, and surprisingly produces a slender overall Conservative majority of 10, and no seats for the Brexit Party on a 17% vote share.

Brexit Party 0
Conservative 330
Green 1
Labour 240
Liberal Democrat 17
Plaid Cymru 3
SNP 41
Northern Ireland parties 18

This is actually not all that different in terms of seats from the latest YouGov MRP projection, which was pretty accurate in 2017.

Tonight is the monthly meeting of the local CAMRA branch, at which I will be presenting a Christmas quiz. 27 years ago, in 1992, the two events (well, not the quiz) also coincided, and that election rather confounded the predictions of the pollsters. We’ll find out in the small hours of tomorrow morning whether that has happened again.

As I said last time, I’m not aware that lifestyle issues have featured at all in the campaign. Sadly, it seems that, whoever gets into power, more things will be banned or restricted.

7 comments:

  1. Hmm, looking at tonight's results, it looks like both my readers and YouGov have somewhat underestimated the Tory performance...

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  2. Your readers overestimated the Brexit Party vote which lead to the skewed result

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    1. It wasn't a forecast, but an expression of personal opinion. And, of course, the poll was created before the Brexit Party withdrew from all the Conservative-held seats.

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  3. An interesting correlation between beer geekery is the correlation between niche beer interest and niche political interest and bubble many choose to exist in. For those that enjoy a bit of beer twitter. Everyone is free to believe what they believe but the result actually came as a shock to some and there is a correlation to pub habits.

    Those that sit primarily in the camra corbyn niche craft micropubs were actually genuinely surprised, horrified, shocked, as the absence of grace and humility in defeat testified. Those familiar and comfortable in mainstream pubs among mainstream drinkers were unsurprised at the result even if disappointed by it. I guess they had a better idea of the views, opinions of regular people and were comfortable among them.

    The danger of bubbles is that they reinforce bad ideas rather than challenge them. If the craft community can be so wrong about one thing, you gotta wonder what else they are wrong about.

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    1. The British craft beer movement really epitomises the "Anywhere" mentality, as described by Daivd Goodhart in his book The Road to Somewhere. No wonder so many of them were spitting feathers on Thursday night.

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    2. I do sometimes feel that I am literally the only person in the Craft Beer sphere that is even slightly right-wing/Libertarian. It's even more pronounced than the feeling that I'm the only person around who is properly, ideologically pro-cask.

      "Sadly, it seems that, whoever gets into power, more things will be banned or restricted."

      Yes. That's basically why I've become a less committed Tory in recent years. The alternatives are all worse, obviously, but the Libertarian wing has been desperately marginalised to the point of near-invisibility. Hopefully the 2019 intake will turn out to be bursting with people on our side. But probably not worth getting too hopeful...

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    3. Oh, I think there are more than you might think, but they tend to keep their heads down. Having said that, there was some spectacular throwing of toys out of the pram in the early hours of Friday morning.

      I'm not holding out a huge amount of hope, but I certainly get the impression that Boris's instincts are more against banning stuff than Cameron or May.

      It was also very gratifying to see Nanny-in-Chief Dr Sarah Wollaston roundly defeated in Totnes.

      It hasn't been said very much, but my feeling is that an undercurrent of resentment against the sneering attitude of so many in Labour to ordinary people's tastes, recreations and attitudes was a factor underlying the swing against them.

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