However, this was seized on in the ex-newspaper known as the Independent, where one Jane Fae stated that she wouldn’t be too upset if Gove’s speculation came to pass. Reading the piece in more detail, though, it seems that this has a great deal to do with her own “long and difficult relationship” with alcohol. And it becomes evident that it’s not pubs in general that she objects to, but just ones that don’t fit her preferred model.
In Italy, when I socialised with friends and family, even late into the evening, it was as likely at a cafe or gelateria (ice cream parlour) as anywhere alcohol-focused. The difference, compared to the UK, was marked: most town centres boast spaces where families can and do go out on an evening.But, of course, if she took the trouble to look, she would find that many modern British pubs sell far more food than drink and bend over backwards to be welcoming to families (much to the dismay of some of us). It is the typical negative stereotype of pubs as dysfunctional drinking dens that remains so popular with people who scarcely ever visit them. And many pubs offer a wide range of social activities, support their local communities through charitable events, and provide a social outlet for lonely people who otherwise would have very little human contact.
It’s also, as I’ve discussed before, impossible to come up with any kind of watertight distinction between “pubs” and “eating places”, given that many pubs now function primarily as restaurants anyway, while many places that present themselves as restaurants actually have a licensing and planning status that is identical to pubs. It seems that lockdown has simply given free rein to people’s censorious tendencies across a whole range of activities. “Isn’t it great that nobody’s now doing [insert particular thing I don’t like]?”
Obviously the lockdown has a severe economic cost, and the time will come when this, and the associated human suffering it creates, will be felt to exceed the benefits. Ultimately that is a political decision, but it is a decision that will have to be made. Tourism and hospitality are the third largest economic sector in Britain, and the economy won’t be able to return to anything like health until they are able to function. It goes far beyond just pubs. I’m not going to make any specific predictions, but I’m pretty confident that I’ll be able to enjoy a pint in a pub well before Christmas, much to Ms Fae’s chagrin.
Meanwhile, in a faraway country of which we know nothing, the Czech Republic have published a lockdown exit timetable that will see indoor areas of bars open again on 25 May, or four weeks from next Monday. Regardless of the current swirl of speculation, are we really likely to be that far behind?
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And, of course, Sweden hasn't bothered to force bars to close. So, so tempting for a summer holiday at present.
ReplyDeleteI suspect foreign travel will be amongst the last things to be unlocked. So no trips to the Czech Republic either, which is much more attractive than Sweden from a beer point of view.
DeleteForeign travel hasn't been stopped. It's not recommended, but there are still (less) daily flights to (for example) both Stockholm and Prague from the UK. At present nobody seems to be completely preventing you if you want to take the risk. I'd rather be stuck somewhere I could still go to the pub of an evening. Oh and there's quite a lot of cask to be had in Sweden.
DeleteYes it seems bizarre that travel isn't actually banned but it isn't. A friend of mine has just flown to Sweden for the very reasons you mention. The longer pubs stay closed, the more tempting it becomes.
DeleteThis is spot-on: It’s hurting but it’s just not working.
ReplyDeleteLockdown: when the fun stops, stop.
DeleteYes,very good. Good 111/999 call data. Not seen that before.
Public acceptance guided the entry into lockdown, and it will guide it out again. The government narrative is shifting rapidly towards relaxations despite warnings to adhere to the guidelines but once public opinion generally accepts the trade off between casualties and economic disaster, the government will be able to get the country opened up for business again.
ReplyDeleteThe Czech plan seems excellent and should be followed. If pubs and bars make some changes to their operator manner,perhaps by screening staff,preventing customers from congregating at the serving area and temperature scanning patrons on arrival they should be able to offer re assurance to staff and members of the public.
ReplyDeleteSome excellent points raised here, Mudge. Ms Rae’s obvious, and rather sour-puss anti-alcohol stance might be excused if she hadn’t concluded her article by stating, “If pubs stayed closed long enough, some better alternative might just emerge.” This is a mixture of hyperbole and lazy journalism combined, especially as you know she’s got no idea as to what such an alternative might be!
ReplyDeleteThe news about pubs and bars in the Czech Republic being allowed to reopen from 25th May is a little bit galling, as my son and I, along with a group of friends, have recently cancelled a short break to Pilsen. We were due to fly out on 17th May and return to the UK on the 20th. Looking at the guidance notes, reproduced on your site, we would have been OK with sitting outside of a pub or restaurant.
We’ve provisionally booked for next year now, so this news is water under the bridge. It might have been a little too early to have gone ahead with the trip, but it does rather lead on nicely to the final section I’d like to comment on.
As a scientist, I found the article you linked to, “It’s hurting but it’s just not working” quite fascinating. I haven’t fully digested all the facts yet, but the figures do seem to show a much lower mortality rate from this virus, than was first feared.
The lock-down might have been the correct approach, given the experiences both Italy and Spain, but the difficulties come in trying to un-lock the shutdown, as the article makes only too clear. It will also be interesting to see what happens next in Sweden, where they have relied on social distancing as a far less damaging means of controlling the spread of the virus, than the rather blunt one of shutting down an entire economy.
What we also don’t know is the percentage of the population that might already have been exposed to Coronavirus. I saw a figure of 10% bandied about the other day, but the level might be much higher than this. When the figure reaches a certain level, then the virus has less and less chance of being passed on to new hosts – the so-called “herd-immunity.”
Fear is obviously a useful means for governments to control a population, but this will only work for so long. My take is we are already seeing a tacit relaxation of the lockdown. There was certainly far more traffic about today than on previous Saturdays. Shops and businesses are gradually reopening. My own company is planning to restart production at the beginning of next month, albeit with smaller numbers of personnel to maintain adequate social distancing.
I’m sure many others will do the same, so yes Mudge, we could well see pubs open once again, and in plenty of time for Christmas!
I saw that article reprinted in the "i" newspaper and was tempted to reply along these lines
Delete"Closing pubs has been a wonderful thing for me. I find that I can buy a whole bottle of wine from the supermarket for the price of a glass in the pub. So I can drink three times as much for the same money. Marvellous."
dcbwhaley - excellent!
DeleteI deliberately avoided the wider policy issues except insofar as they related to pubs. However, a widespread misunderstanding seems to have developed about the purpose of the lockdown. It was put in place to stop the health service being overwhelmed; it was never the intention to keep it in operation until the chance of infection has virtually disappeared.
DeleteIt may well have been justified at the time, but to my mind we should now be embarking on a programme of staged relaxation along the lines of the Czech Republic, but two to four weeks behind. Of course some will say "well, people will die!" but the alternative is hardly cost-free either.
I tend to agree Mudge, and if, as seems likely, the lock-down has prevented the NHS from being over-whelmed, then there is now a case for a staged relaxation of some of the measures.
DeleteYou can't keep people locked away forever, and those in favour of its continuance seem to forget that the food, goods and services they are quite happily consuming at home, have to come from somewhere.
Real people are involved in the growing, harvesting, manufacturing and distribution of these items, and providing these activities can be carried out safely and responsibly, there is no reason for panic or alarm.
But who is to say that relaxing the lockdown now won't cause the NHS to be overwhelmed a few days down the line? The lockdown needs to be kept in place until the transmission rate is manageable. And that is a medical and not political decision.
DeleteNo, ultimately it has to be a political decision, as it involves balancing combating coronavirus with the general state of the economy and the rise of other problems. You could easily have a medically excellent coronavirus outcome with the rest of society in smoking ruins around it.
DeleteUK: 20,000 deaths (0.03% of population) in 52 days; 5,000 deaths in last week
ReplyDeleteSweden: 2,000 deaths (0.02% of population) in 46 days; 300 deaths in last week
Germany: 5,600 deaths (0.007% of population) in 48 days; 1,300 deaths in last week
Czech Republic: 219 deaths (0.002% of population) in 36 days; 39 deaths in last week
It's true that we're doing worse than Sweden despite the lockdown - although we're also doing an awful lot worse than Germany, whose lockdown is similar to ours. But I'm afraid we can't learn anything from the Czech Republic, other than "ease the lockdown when the daily death rate is down in single figures".
It has been widely suggested that Germany is using a tighter definition that only includes deaths directly caused by Covid, and not those of people who had the disease, but where the primary cause of death was another condition.
DeleteI've heard that; it's also been suggested that the British figures only include people who had been tested for Covid before dying, which will also exclude some people. But even if the German figures are depressed by a tighter definition, the differences involved are huge - the UK's death rate at the 48-day mark was four times Germany's; it doesn't seem likely that differing definitions would make that big a difference.
DeleteHmm, I wonder what might be the significant distinguishing factors between the UK and German health systems?
DeleteCurmudgeon if I were you I'd rip Mrs. Fae's newspaper into useful sized pieces and keep them for the next toilet roll shortage.
ReplyDeleteNot possible, as it has ceased to be a physical publication and exists only in an online afterlife.
DeleteI've stopped reading and watching virtually all news.
ReplyDeleteMost of it is delivered by gormless twats who hate Brexit and know as much about Covid-19 as a defrosting lasagne.
I'm bored with their ludicrous attempts to catch out politicians and scientists working themselves to the point of exhaustion trying to deal with an unprecedented national crisis.
According to a poll this week the reputation of hacks covering this crisis is in the toilet.
They'll feel right at home then.
Completely agree, Professor. I think the hacks have got the message, though. The daily press conference questions have become more sensible recently. The BBC still seem to have a deathwish. I can't abide R5Live's mawkish grief porn and endless anecdotal "evidence" from unknown contributors with a beef about PPE, tests etc.
DeleteThe best thing about the poll is that it was taken from readers of Press Gazette. Most journalists don't work in national media organisations and are just as frustrated as anyone else with the 'gotcha' attitude of those journalists who are trying to be the news rather than report it.
Delete