Thursday 4 July 2024

Decision day

As with previous General Elections, I created a poll to gauge the sentiments of blog readers. The 2019 equivalent can be seen here. This year’s results are shown below. This time I recorded 265 votes as compared with 257 in 2019. I did not share this beyond this blog and the related Twitter account. I froze this poll last night, so if you view the original one or two more votes might have been added.

Using the Electoral Calculus model, the number of seats for each party this would produce are as follows:

Conservative 9
Green 2
Labour 254
Liberal Democrat 50
Plaid Cymru 2
Reform 300
Scottish National Party 14
Speaker 1
Northern Irish parties 18

This produces a hung Parliament with Reform as the largest party. In that scenario it would be difficult to form a stable government. Bear in mind that this purely reflects the opinions of blog readers and is not intended to be a representative sample of the population.

By contrast, the final YouGov MRP projection, issued at 5 pm last night, gives very different figures.

While there is a hundredfold disparity in the number of seats for Reform, this only represents the impact of their vote share doubling from maybe 17% to34%. What the actual results are we will find out in the small hours of tomorrow morning.

This final poll from Survation is fairly representative of the percentages the major pollsters are predicting.

There was little mention of pubs and beer, or wider lifestyle issues, in the campaign, with the exception of Labour announcing a rather half-baked idea to allow communities to purchase closed pubs, and whatever the result we can expect more bans, more restrictions and more taxes.


  1. This just means your blog has attracted a load of Faragists.
    Is Nige the saviour of smoking in pubs, then?

  2. Do or die moment for the UK as a state.

  3. That is if most of the MP’s for Northern Ireland turn up :)

  4. And things can only get better
    Can only get better now I found you
    (Things can only get, can only get)
    Things can only get better
    Can only get better now I found you and you and you.

    Smoking gonna be banned full stop!
    Minimum pricing for booze!
    Booze ration books/smart cards!
    Pubs restricted from selling alcohol with children present!

    And things can only get better ....

    1. I don't think an awful lot will change; why should it? The Conservatives have not done anything conservative in the past 14 years, even when they had the 80 seat majority. For 14 years the Tories have merely continued the New Labour Blairite system, when they could have abolished all the nonsense of it. The Conservative Party is left-wing; we have effectively had socialism since 1997, so 2024 onwards.....more of the same.

  5. Well, Labour have won a landslide on a vote share of only 35%, the lowest ever in the era of universal suffrage. Hardly a resounding vote of confidence.

    Buckle in, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

    1. Reform got 6517 in Stockport, coming second to Labour's 21787, which put them in second place ahead of the Cons. In every constituency's results I've looked at so far, Reform were either second or third. Yet they get only 4 seats, totally unfair.

    2. This despite the candidate - Lynn Schofield - being a "paper candidate" without a photo or biography on the election leaflet.

      In fact Reform gained a fifth seat yesterday when they won South Basildon & East Thurrock (very clunky constituency name) after a recount with a majority of 98.

    3. The first past the post system might be unfair but it is what the electorate want
      The 2011 referendum had 70% of the voters voting for FPTP against 30% for AV
      You can't deny the democratic will of the people

    4. AV in single-member constituencies isn't really a form of PR anyway. Every party has to work with the system as it exists today, and endless moaning about FPTP isn't a very good luck. Plus PR hasn't really produced a higher standard of governance in Scotland and Wales.

    5. AV was rejected as being too complicated for the average voter to understand as it requires the ability to count to a large number, perhaps as high as six

    6. AV in single-member constituencies isn't PR anyway, and in some circumstances, such as where two parties effectively gang up against a third in a three-way race, can lead to even less proportional outcomes nationally.

      The allegedly thick Irish manage to cope with the complexities of STV in multi-member constituencies.

      I think if a form of genuine PR had been on the ballot in 2011 the result would have been much closer.

    7. These figures show the scandal in the rawest numbers: Reform with 5 seats: 4,114,287 votes. Labour with 412 seats: 9,698,409 votes.

  6. This is not that much different to other unrelated websites I lurk or post at. The newspaper reading class would give a much higher Tory vote for sure.

    It definitely represents the demographics of those who post on the internet, likely with a bit of male bias.

    What's interesting across Reform and the similar western parties is the high youth support. They realise they've been screwed over by mass immigration - depressed wages and inflated house prices, which both help the Boomers.

    1. I don't agree with votes at 16 on principle, but possibly Labour will get cold feet on it as they no longer see it as a source of electoral advantage.

    2. Also, Mudgie's poll most likely didn't attract the 110% turnout muslim postal bloc vote.

    3. You could vote multiple times if you deleted the relevant cookie.

  7. The booze ration cards will be the killer. As much as I love proper pubs, I'll struggle to enjoy one on the diet coke. Befriend the kids in the office that don't drink. There's a couple in my office I'll be able to cadge ration cards off to keep me going.

    1. I think the problem for the 55+ will be explaining 1) why they have pursued high house prices for 25 years (there's a bitter youth following btw), and 2) why did the 55+ voters destroy the lives of the youth for several years unnecessarily during Mockdown.

      It'll be Reform with teeth.

  8. Crikey eh Mudge? Five years ago, the Tories were looking at multiple terms and labour were buried under nasty Corbyn and his nastier supporters.

    Kier has turned it around and made labour a decent party whilst the Tories have collapsed for all the reasons we have seen over the last 5 years, Incompetence being unforgivable.

    It’s all volatile though. Of interest is many seats now where reform is the No2. They can say a Tory vote is the wasted vote next time round. 5 terrorist supporting independents doesn’t bode well for sectarianism entering parliament.

    From a party management position a massive majority is a whole group of MPs with no chance of a ministerial career that might spend their time causing mischief rather than doing as they’re told. He might wish he won just enough to govern and give them all a reason to maintain discipline.

    We live in interesting times. If Kier can improve prosperity, improve public services and make the country at ease with whatever level of immigration he aims for, he’ll be the incumbent and the safe pair of hands.

    If he doesn’t, first past the post has a tipping point and you could see Nige going up from here whilst consigning the Tories to oblivion.

    Could Nige one day get to smoke a fag inside a pub?

    1. The key to political success is always producing economic growth. As James Carville famously said, "It's the economy, stupid." Labour have promised to free up the sclerotic planning system so we can actually start building things again, but it remains to be seen whether they can actually achieve this in the face of so many vested interests.

      My expectation is that they will enjoy only a very brief honeymoon period, and will rapidly run on to the rocks of immigration, taxation and Net Zero.

      Starmer received fewer votes than Corbyn did in 2019 - this wasn't a positive vote for Labour, but a rejection of the Conservatives. Former Tory votes switched to Reform or LibDems, or simply stayed at home.

  9. Professor Pie-Tin5 July 2024 at 17:11

    Of course the result was inevitable but still a bit of a bummer when it arrived. Imagine having as our Foreign Secretary someone who thinks a man can grow a cervix. Fuck me. I awoke in such a funk this morning I cheered myself up by going out and buying a Porsche Macan.


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