In the bleak midwinter

A couple of recent press articles make pretty grim reading for the pub trade. The Guardian reports that the number of pubs in Britain has fallen to a hundred-year low:

The number of pubs has fallen below 39,000 for the first time, as 412 were demolished or converted for other uses in the year to December, according to an analysis of government figures by the property data company Altus Group. Most of the closures happened in the first half of the year. The overall number of pubs in England and Wales, including those vacant and being offered to let, fell to 38,989 as closures accelerated. Some of them were converted to homes, offices and day nurseries.

More than 34 pubs shut every month on average, the sharpest fall in numbers since 2021, when the hospitality sector was hit hard by Covid-19 lockdowns and soaring energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. London lost the greatest number of pubs this year, down by 55 to 3,470. In the West Midlands, pub numbers dropped by 53 to 3,904, and in the East Midlands, 47 closed, taking the number there to 3,496. Since the start of 2020, more than 2,000 pubs have closed, under pressure from rising costs while consumers, struggling with higher rents and mortgage payments, have been spending less.

While, in the Daily Telegraph, Matthew Lynn writes that government tax policies are likely to finish off many of those that have made it to the end of 2024. (The Telegraph article is paywalled, but I can let you have the full text if you send me an e-mail).

Enjoy a few drinks if your local is open late this evening. It may well be the last time you can spend New Year’s Eve at your favourite pub. They have been closing down for years, but over the course of the last 12 months that trend has started to accelerate. It is going to get a lot worse over the next few months.

The Government is hitting pubs with higher taxes, and higher costs, at a time when many of them are already struggling to survive. In reality, this Labour government is going to kill the pub off for good, ripping the heart out of local communities and economies – and they won’t come back once they have been destroyed…

…The trouble is, pubs now face a government that is determined to do everything it can to destroy what little money a few of them still make. The steep rise in employer’s National Insurance imposed in the Budget in October will hit them very hard. After all, a pub can’t operate without bar staff, but many of them work part-time and are modestly paid.

I toyed with writing a lengthy post reflecting on these stories, but to be honest I’ve said it all before on numerous occasions. The long-term decline of pubs, as Matthew Lynn points out, is largely due to social changes over the years that have made us much more censorious about alcohol consumption, particularly in public settings. It is no longer a part of everyday life for responsible people in the way that it once was.

I have never suggested that the smoking ban was a monocausal explanation for the loss of pubs, although it certainly accelerated the process by a few years and disproportionately affected working-class, wet-led boozers. Without it, we would have a lot more pubs today, and many of those currently open would be in a stronger financial position.

Labour’s planned tax changes will result in a significantly harsher financial climate for pubs and hospitality in general, and we are likely to see a continued drip-drip of closures during the coming year. But fiscal burdens are not the root cause of the long-term decline of pubs, and relaxing them, while it will provide relief for those still in operation, won’t of itself reverse the trend.

The header picture is the Shield & Dagger in Southampton, the latest entry on my Closed Pubs blog, which was demolished in September of last year.