Tuesday, 19 May 2020

Front or back of the queue?

A concern that has been expressed by many in the trade is that, even when pubs are allowed to reopen, many of their previous customers may be very wary of returning to them due to continued fear of contracting the virus. A number of surveys have been created to gauge the strength of this feeling, including one I did myself that finishes tomorrow.

However, a drawback of surveys of this kind is that they make no allowance for how often people actually visited pubs in the first place. This is something we saw at the time of the smoking ban, when a number of surveys showed that a majority of people would visit pubs more after it was implemented. This may well have been true, but if you only went once a year before, but then stepped it up to twice a year, it wouldn’t make much difference overall. And, as we all know, the actual effect on the trade of pubs was the exact opposite of what these surveys suggested.

So I thought I would create a two-dimensional poll that identifies people’s responses depending on how often they visited pubs before the lockdown, as shown in the panel below. It’s limited to a maximum of 100 responses, so I’ll attempt to analyse the results once it’s complete.

Edit: I have now closed the survey and removed the web form as it has reached the maximum number of responses.

19 comments:

  1. I would be wary in July, because I think that is too early (though my wariness may not be enough to stop me going). But depending on what happens to the figures, and on whether the government manage to get their act together and implement tracing properly, I think it quite likely that by September it will be safe. I ticked the "I'd wait until July" box as I thought that was closest to my view.

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  2. I want to go to a pub to talk to my friends. If pubs open but you have to sit two metres from anyone not in your household then I won't be bothering.

    I mean I might go for the occasional pub meal, or pop in after a walk (with or without my family), but those were never frequent occurencies and they're not what I miss.

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  3. I am waiting until there is either a vaccine or reliable treatment. As much as I love going to the pub, and am very much in the "several visits a week" category, I am also asthmatic and one of my twin sons is too. I am not willing to put his and my life potentially at risk just for the sake of a bevvy. I get that there are plenty of other illnesses one can get by being out in public, but the vast majority of them have known treatments.

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  4. At the risk of constantly repeating myself and preaching to the converted; drinking is about personal responsibility, your own health is your own responsibility.

    Open the pubs, open the breweries and let the chips fall as they may.

    I was bored
    https://imgflip.com/i/421mle

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    1. If it was simply about personal responsibility and personal health I - a great exponent of Darwinism - would agree.
      But open all the pubs would increase the rate of spread and put other people at risk.

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    2. Well, the risk is pretty small now and will be utterly minimal by July 4th. And there's no evidence of a "second wave" in other countries that have unlocked earlier.

      Plus, unless we can reopen the pubs, and by implication the rest of the hospitality, tourism and entertainment sector, the economy is going to remain on the floor. Maybe that's what you want. This cartoon sums up the attitude of those who wish to prolong the lockdown indefinitely.

      Anyway, we've done the general issue to death now...

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  5. If this virus was as dangerous as people have been encouraged to think, why have supermarket workers not been dropping like flies? Every day they are exposed to thousands of people and each other with lip service paid to social distancing inside the stores, yet reports of workers becoming ill are rare to non existent.

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    1. Events have shown that the main risk is amongst people who are one or both of very old and very obese, when in confined indoor areas. The risk to the general population below pensionable age is pretty small.

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    2. That's Sam Smiths done for then.

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  6. I'm happy to start visiting pubs as soon as they re-open (presumably July). I will however, be a little circumspect, and will choose pubs that aren’t too busy and definitely not over-crowded.

    Even better will be those pubs with gardens attached, as there is nothing better on a warm summer’s day, than a pint supped outside in the fresh air.
    I'm happy to start visiting pubs as soon as they re-open (presumably July). I will however, be a little circumspect, and will choose pubs that aren’t too crowded.

    Even better will be those pubs with gardens attached, as there is nothing better on a warm summer’s day, than a pint supped outside in the fresh air.

    ps. I agree with what electricpics is saying, as the evidence seems to suggest the virus is not as transmissible as the authorities would have us believe; apart from two scenarios. One is being close to someone who is coughing, the second is even worse, and that is being near an infected person who sneezes.

    The latter means the shedding of large numbers of virus particles over a wide area, which will obviously greater increase the chance of infection. Definitely a case for wearing masks in certain situations, at least until the virus is under control or, better still, eliminated altogether.

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    1. Difficult to drink beer when wearing a mask :-) :-)

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    2. "Certain situations," not all of the time!

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    3. Most of my "personal" pubgoing, as opposed to that related to CAMRA activities, is at lunchtimes or in the afternoon, and the pubs I visit are rarely anywhere near crowded. Indeed, my two favoured local pubs could achieve six-foot social distancing between customers without any problem.

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  7. 43% would happily go today. Bravo!

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  8. As one of the aforementioned supermarket workers, had you told me 8 weeks ago that I'd be working in the conditions I work in and not (knowingly) had Coronavirus by May 21st, I'd never have believed you. But then work has been weird since late February anyway.

    There are only about 4 pubs in Preston that you could do 2m social distancing and the place still have a reasonable turnover. And knowing which ones they are, I'd rather stay at home to be honest.

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  9. Pubs will reopen when nice middle class people feel safe, and not before. Then and only then will the government open them.

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    1. You mean when they can finish their virtue signalling about how superior they are in observing lockdown, unlike the great unwashed. Nothing like a bit of authoritarianism for the middle class faux socialists to feed off.

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  10. Professor Pie-Tin22 May 2020 at 10:10

    Yup.
    The same jackasses who support teachers topping up their tans on full pay for as long as possible while the rest of Europe heads back to normality.
    At the risk of repeating myself the public and media reaction in the UK to almost every aspect of this pandemic is now based almost entirely on Brexit lines.

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  11. It looks like the great panic will soon be over,evidence from countries that have taken steps to re open their economies,including pubs,has not shown any significant increase in infection,neither has there been an increase in London despite over crowding on public transport during the last 3 weeks,is creating pressure on the Government to re open large areas of the economy and social life and pubs will re open in July

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