The death of craft?

The Daily Star has recently posed the question of whether craft beer is dead in the UK. This is actually a considerably more informative and in-depth article than you might expect from that particular source.

It is certainly true that, compared with ten years ago, the excitement surrounding craft beer has very much worn off. And that is perhaps a key point, that it was a concept that was all about novelty and innovation, but there is only so far you can take that before you enter the territory of embracing unusual flavours and ingredients purely for their own sake. People inevitably became a bit fed up with it all and preferred to return to tried and trusted favourites. Plus the drinkers who fuelled the initial boom have grown older, bought houses, had children, got more responsible jobs and don’t have so much time for it any more.

From the start, a key problem was always that “craft” is, as the article states, “an unclear marketing term”, and there have been endless debates over how it should be defined. As I wrote last year, “Is it the type of beer, the kind of ingredients used, the size of the brewery, the independent status of the brewery, the ethos of the brewery, or some kind of nebulous combination of all these factors?” For many drinkers, the term has come to be synonymous with a particular type of heavily-hopped, astringent and possibly hazy keg IPA.

The issue was further clouded by some of what were perceived as the leading craft brands, such as Camden and Beavertown, being acquired by the international brewers. To counter this, SIBA launched a campaign to stress breweries’ independent status, but the problem with this is, that while it’s useful to know, of itself it says nothing about the character or quality of the actual beer.

Craft has also suffered from an often justified perception that it is expensive. As Matthew McAloone of 40ft Brewery says:

“It's the more expensive part of the bar and the charges that have been levied on hospitality in terms of duty the government has put in, it has made it impossible for bars and restaurants to do what they want to do, so they’re consolidating range, which is normally into mainstream products and they’re sacrificing craft… it makes commercial sense and you sell a lot of beer, big guys will give you money just to stock their beer, and their stuff’s cheaper… its the safe bet”.

It’s certainly the case that “craft keg” in pubs tends to sell at a considerable price premium over equivalent cask beers or mainstream lagers, and the craft section is by far the most expensive part of the supermarket beer aisle. So, at a time when many people’s budgets are stretched, it’s hardly surprising that they’re less willing to splash out on it.

Craft is also characterised, almost by definition, by stronger and more distinctive flavours than mainstream beers. This may have encouraged people to try it out of a spirit of experimentation, but are they going to decide that it’s something they want to drink on a regular basis? And it isn’t helped by many craft offerings being hazy or cloudy. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with that, but it remains something that is perceived by most beer drinkers as offputting.

Craft beer became associated with the stereotypical image of the “hipster”, and was seen as being surrounded by pretentiousness and pseudery. Some craft brewers also saw themselves as engaged in a socio-political crusade rather than just brewing interesting beer, which to some extent limited their appeal and has come to be increasingly at odds with the current Zeitgeist.

In the middle of the 2010s, there was a wave of enthusiasm around craft beer, which could almost be described as a feeding frenzy. Staid family brewers were jumping on the bandwagon in the fear that they might end up being left behind, and all kinds of wacky brewing projects were being launched. I wrote about what appeared to be the peak of the bubble in 2017. As Matthew McAloone says:

“We were expecting it to grow and grow and grow and take over everything, but it just wasn’t what the market wanted and now we know were it’s at, we know how much is up for grabs, there just won’t be as many people able to compete for it."

The craft boom also caught CAMRA like a rabbit in the headlights, and resulted in the ill-advised Revitalisation Project, which didn’t at the end of the day resolve anything. CAMRA beer festivals can now sell keg beers that do not qualify as “real ale”, but there is no clarity as to what is acceptable and what isn’t. “Real Ale” at least is something that can be objectively defined.

The froth had very much gone off the top by 2019, and it was clear by then that expectations for the growth of craft had been grossly over-optimistic. James Watt’s assertion that IPA would eventually replace lager, as lager had replaced bitter, sounded questionable then, and with hindsight seems risible although, as is usually the case with BrewDog, it was probably mostly just a case of courting publicity. The Covid lockdowns and pub closures of 2020-21 dealt a further blow to the market.

There remains a definite niche for interesting, innovative keg and canned beers sold at a premium price, but it’s only a small segment of the overall beer market, and the excitement of ten years ago has pretty much entirely dissipated. I’ve made the point in the past that the enduring legacy of the British craft beer movement is likely to be the presence of a hoppy keg IPA on many bars, of which Neck Oil is possibly the prime example. There recently been an new entrant in the form of Alpacalypse, a collaboration between the independent Salt Brewery and Molson Coors. But the question has to be asked how many of these beers will still be on bars on twenty years’ time. I’m pretty certain Guinness will be, though.

It has to be remembered that beer is a product that is generally consumed in a social context, and drinkers will inevitably be influenced by the choices made by their companions, and feel some kind of desire to fit in. This applies to home drinking too. Most off-trade beer is still drunk in company, not in isolation. And craft, for many people, now comes across as either highly idiosyncratic or just old hat.

Losing the appetite for life

The weight loss drug Semaglutide, variously marketed as Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy and Rybelsus, has been much in the headlines recently. Many showbiz celebrities, and indeed some leading politicians, are rumoured to have been using it to control their weight.

While it isn’t generally available via the NHS, it has been prescribed for certain specific conditions, and more and more people away from the public eye seem to be getting hold of it through private prescriptions. The effect is reported to be a general suppression of appetite that reduces cravings for both food and drink. There are many reports of unpleasant side-effects, including diarrhoea and nausea, but for some weight loss is such a desirable objective that it overrides all of these.

As the Daily Telegraph reports, this has the potential to spill over into having a broader impact on any businesses that depend on the enjoyment of food and drink.

A star fund manager is betting against the boom in Guinness amid fears that the rise of weight loss drugs could curtail demand for alcoholic drinks. Terry Smith, the founder of Fundsmith, told investors that his £22.8bn fund no longer owned shares in the stout brand’s owner Diageo, in part owing to concerns over the impact of weight loss drugs on drinks companies.

His decision to sell follows a surge in demand for the drink, which has soared in popularity among young drinkers to the extent that supply to pubs was rationed over Christmas. He wrote in his annual letter to shareholders: “We suspect the entire drinks sector is in the early stages of being impacted negatively by weight-loss drugs. Indeed, it seems likely that the drugs will eventually be used to treat alcoholism such is their effect on consumption.”

Presumably this will also in the long term have an effect on the restaurant sector, as people no longer feel such a desire to go out for a meal, and if they do will end up picking over tiny portions in a desultory fashion. The general effect seems to be to erode people’s desire to engage in any enjoyable, self-indulgent behaviour and to strip them of their joie de vivre. It sounds like a grim, joyless future.

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that, as with many such “wonder drugs” there may be an element of the devil’s bargain about it. Will it prove to have a sting in the tail, with serious long-term side-effects revealing themselves in the fullness of time?

Let me entertain you

On Christmas Eve, I walked to my local pub at lunchtime for a couple of pints. It wasn’t packed, but there was a decent scattering of people in. It was, as they say “nicely ticking over”. But something that struck me was that, in the rear lounge, there were a couple of giant TV screens showing the darts, with the sound turned up. Nobody was watching, and everyone was just trying to ignore it and get on with their conversation.

Unwatched, intrusive screens are a common problem in pubs, and this is one of the reasons why I don’t go to this pub anywhere near as often as I used to. However, it underlined a wider issue, that those who operate pubs seem to believe that their customers need to be entertained or participating in some kind of experience at all times. It could be eating a meal, watching TV sport, listening to live or recorded music, playing pub sports or board games, or engaging in quizzes. But if they’re not actually doing something, why are they there?

I recently spotted a particularly egregious example of this when the Morning Advertiser reported on how chef and TV personality Clodagh McKenna saw tablescaping as a way of enhancing the customer experience in pubs:

It’s a brilliant, fun way to creatively change the atmosphere of a room. Using glassware, flowers, candles, centrepieces or other objects, you can be as elaborate or simple as you desire. People want a memorable experience more than ever before, and pubs can add lots and lots of simple accessories to enhance the space to drive customers back to their outlet again and again.

Pardon me while I reach for the sick bag. This prompted me to respond on X/Twitter with “No! I just want a decent pint and a comfortable seat”, which so far has attracted over 60 likes, so it obviously struck a chord with a lot of people.

No! I just want a decent pint and a comfortable seat 😊🍺 https://t.co/XsDSROC9yo

— Ebenezer Mudge 🌸🍻🎅 (@oldmudgie) December 25, 2024

It reminded me of a particularly pretentious refurbishment that Robinson’s carried of at the Bull’s Head in Hale Barns a few years, which involved, amongst other things, replacing tables with reused steamer trunks. “This is a pub full of theatre and intrigue,” the description went. That is really the last thing I want in a pub. This has, in fact, since been somewhat toned down.

A similar note was struck by this tweet about one pubgoer’s experiences in Birmingham city centre. (While that is from a locked account, I obtained his permission to reproduce it).

All these other activities have a place in pubs, but I have always thought what they’re fundamentally about is providing a welcoming, non-judgmental “third space” where you can escape, if only for a while, from the demands and constraints of the home or the workplace. A pub should be a kind of refuge from the outside world, where you need to do no more than chew the fat with your companions or just contemplate the world going by.

Sadly, this is a fundamental truth that so many people who design and operate pubs seem to have forgotten. And it has to be said that the oft-maligned Sam Smith’s pubs, where they can manage to stay open and build up a loyal clientele, do manage to achieve that more reliably than any others.

In the bleak midwinter

A couple of recent press articles make pretty grim reading for the pub trade. The Guardian reports that the number of pubs in Britain has fallen to a hundred-year low:

The number of pubs has fallen below 39,000 for the first time, as 412 were demolished or converted for other uses in the year to December, according to an analysis of government figures by the property data company Altus Group. Most of the closures happened in the first half of the year. The overall number of pubs in England and Wales, including those vacant and being offered to let, fell to 38,989 as closures accelerated. Some of them were converted to homes, offices and day nurseries.

More than 34 pubs shut every month on average, the sharpest fall in numbers since 2021, when the hospitality sector was hit hard by Covid-19 lockdowns and soaring energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. London lost the greatest number of pubs this year, down by 55 to 3,470. In the West Midlands, pub numbers dropped by 53 to 3,904, and in the East Midlands, 47 closed, taking the number there to 3,496. Since the start of 2020, more than 2,000 pubs have closed, under pressure from rising costs while consumers, struggling with higher rents and mortgage payments, have been spending less.

While, in the Daily Telegraph, Matthew Lynn writes that government tax policies are likely to finish off many of those that have made it to the end of 2024. (The Telegraph article is paywalled, but I can let you have the full text if you send me an e-mail).

Enjoy a few drinks if your local is open late this evening. It may well be the last time you can spend New Year’s Eve at your favourite pub. They have been closing down for years, but over the course of the last 12 months that trend has started to accelerate. It is going to get a lot worse over the next few months.

The Government is hitting pubs with higher taxes, and higher costs, at a time when many of them are already struggling to survive. In reality, this Labour government is going to kill the pub off for good, ripping the heart out of local communities and economies – and they won’t come back once they have been destroyed…

…The trouble is, pubs now face a government that is determined to do everything it can to destroy what little money a few of them still make. The steep rise in employer’s National Insurance imposed in the Budget in October will hit them very hard. After all, a pub can’t operate without bar staff, but many of them work part-time and are modestly paid.

I toyed with writing a lengthy post reflecting on these stories, but to be honest I’ve said it all before on numerous occasions. The long-term decline of pubs, as Matthew Lynn points out, is largely due to social changes over the years that have made us much more censorious about alcohol consumption, particularly in public settings. It is no longer a part of everyday life for responsible people in the way that it once was.

I have never suggested that the smoking ban was a monocausal explanation for the loss of pubs, although it certainly accelerated the process by a few years and disproportionately affected working-class, wet-led boozers. Without it, we would have a lot more pubs today, and many of those currently open would be in a stronger financial position.

Labour’s planned tax changes will result in a significantly harsher financial climate for pubs and hospitality in general, and we are likely to see a continued drip-drip of closures during the coming year. But fiscal burdens are not the root cause of the long-term decline of pubs, and relaxing them, while it will provide relief for those still in operation, won’t of itself reverse the trend.

The header picture is the Shield & Dagger in Southampton, the latest entry on my Closed Pubs blog, which was demolished in September of last year.

Nobody can have nice things

The Daily Telegraph reports on yet another threat to pubs from the present government:

Pubs could be under threat after the Government scrapped a scheme allowing communities the opportunity to save them. The community ownership fund, which was launched in 2021, was set to run until the end of March and keep £150 million available to help people rescue local treasures on the brink of closure. The initiative was closed earlier than planned with millions of pounds unallocated in an attempt to budget for Sir Keir Starmer’s priorities.

Sir Keir was branded a “Scrooge” for scrapping the scheme just days before Christmas as the Government blamed the decision on the state of public finances. Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, said it was an act “worthy of Scrooge”, especially after Labour hammered businesses with tax rises at the October Budget.

A recurring theme of recent years is of communities being aggrieved by pub operators closing pubs which were seen as a valued facility, but were considered uneconomic by their owners. The obvious response to this is to say “well, if you feel so strongly about it, why not put up your own money to buy it and run it yourselves?” And, in a growing number of instances, communities have been doing just that. One of the most recent examples is the King’s Head at Chitterne in Wiltshire (pictured).

It’s not something that’s going to suit every pub, but if there is a local community who are sufficiently engaged, and have deep enough pockets, then it’s certainly a viable option. I wrote about this back in 2017. The lack of a need to earn a return on capital means that a community pub can survive with a lower level of trade than that required for a commercial enterprise, but it has to be remembered that the socio-economic factors that led to its previous closure have not disappeared overnight. It is also often said that actually buying the pub is only the first stage of the battle – a way has to be found to ensure it can function on a long-term basis. Communities may not be too keen to subsidise ongoing operating losses.

To encourage this process, in 2021 the previous government provided £150 million for a Community Ownership Fund that aimed to help local people acquire threatened facilities. As well as pubs, this also covered music venues, theatres, cinemas, community centres, museums, parks and lidos. So far, £135 million of the initial sum has been allocated to 409 different projects. Pubs that have been saved include the Radnor Arms at New Radnor in Mid-Wales, and the Bell at Odiham in Hampshire.

Some may question on a strict utilitarian basis why the government should be paying for pubs at all. However, they do provide funding for a wide variety of other purposes that are felt to improve “quality of life” but cannot demonstrate a direct financial return, such as sport, the arts and preserving historic buildings. These are projects where a community will enjoy a specific, tangible benefit that they may appreciate rather more than an interpretive dance workshop. The Community Ownership Fund is making grants to provide capital funding for purchase – they are not funding ongoing operations. And, in a wider content, it is not difficult to identify areas of public spending where lavish sums are provided for projects of very questionable value.

Of course government does not enjoy a bottomless pit of money, but cutting this programme short comes across as a joyless, mean-spirited piece of penny-pinching that will save very little, but make people’s lives just that little bit worse and leave a sour taste in their mouths.