Sunday, 27 October 2019

Pile it high and sell it cheap

As craft beer grows in popularity, it gets into a wider range of outlets. And, in the off-trade, that inevitably means that it moves out of the specialist bottle shops and into the supermarkets. Now, supermarkets are known for engaging in intensive price competition with each other and driving a hard bargain with suppliers, two things that don’t perhaps sit entirely easily with the craft ethos.

The photo above shows the range of craft beers in my local Tesco, all available at £1.80 each or 4 for £6. It’s not the absolute bleeding edge of craft, but even so it’s a pretty respectable selection, including the likes of Vocation, Magic Rock, Thornbridge, Five Points, Crate, Toast and Camden. It’s interesting that pretty much all of these beers now seem to have moved from bottles to cans. The German discounters, Aldi and Lidl, have introduced their own-brand “craft-a-likes” at even lower prices.

This has attracted a certain amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth from the craft influencers, complaining that such low prices will devalue the concept and won’t give brewers a decent return. However, I can’t help thinking they’re protesting a bit too much. There’s always going to be a limit to craft’s popularity unless it can achieve a price point rather closer to that of mainstream beers. Most drinkers just want something that delivers a particular flavour and conveys a certain image, and aren’t interested in paying over the odds to “support” specific breweries. If these beers were priced at £2.50 or £3 in Tesco, they wouldn’t sell much of them, and indeed probably wouldn’t stock them at all. If those brewers weren’t making any money from selling to Tesco, they wouldn't do it, just as nobody has to sell to Wetherspoon’s.

It’s also something of a myth that craft beers are vastly more expensive to produce, as I explained here. Even if the ingredients cost half as much again (which is doubtful) the total cost still only makes up a small proportion of the final price. If anything, the higher costs are more likely to come from less efficient energy usage and administration and distribution processes. And they’re still commanding a substantial price premium over other beers – 50% above the 500ml premium bottled ales, which are in the same offer, and more than twice as much as a 4x440ml pack of Stella. This is probably at least as big as the price premium enjoyed by the major craft brands in the US.

If you want to be able to sell beer for £3 a can, you have to stay ahead of the pack and brew something that is prized by enthusiasts and isn’t on Tesco’s shelves. But, in the overall scheme of things, you won’t sell very much of it. You can either be popular, or premium and exclusive, but you can’t be both. You do have to wonder how successful some of these enthusiasts actually want the craft sector to be. It’s rather like music fans feeling sold out because their favourite indie band has appeared on Top of the Pops and had a track included on Now That’s What I Call Music.

24 comments:

  1. Looks like our Tesco at Milton. I've paid the £3 for BrewDog v Cloudwater in cans for Mrs RM and she's been impressed.

    As you say, for many craft fans the exclusivity is part of the appeal.

    As an example of a craft fan getting upset at the increasing accessibility of their favourites, not much beats this classic
    https://totalales.blogspot.com/2014/08/missing-point.html

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    1. Ah yes, I remember that one. It certainly did the rounds at the time. Still not sure who John Kimmich is...

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    2. John Kimmich is the bloke whose middle name is F*cking, apparently. To quite a few people, that's the thing he's best known for... ;-)

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    3. The Stafford Mudgie27 October 2019 at 18:08

      This just confirms that 'supermarkets' aren't for me.
      Today I've used the Joiners Arms, Greyhound, Princess Royal and Railway.

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    4. The blog post that started off a career. It would be harsh of me to judge any further.

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    5. Call me perverse, but I actually enjoyed reading through all those comments on young Mr Curtis's blog.

      Must have missed that one at the time, but I do remember the moniker of John "F*cking" Kimmich doing the rounds.

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  2. The supermarkets will jump on anything remotely popular and cheapen the product and ultimately drive the producers to near extinction, which surprises to see the likes of Thornbridge and Brewdog playing the game, but maybe they have such a base point of strength they can get away with it. The fact the supermarkets are so very craft active is testament that although an undefined thing its a major mover and shaker nowadays.

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  3. Paying a premium would suit genuine craft enthusiasts, who would value the product more than most people. Cost, worth, and value are very subjective depending on your level of interest in something. The average supermarket shopper maybe tempted to try craft for the first time if the price point is good enough, if that would convert them to regular craft drinking in licenced premises is debatable, but they may continue to buy from a shop if they believe they are getting value for money.

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  4. "something of a myth that craft beers are vastly more expensive to produce" - if you made your own beer, like I do, you'd know that some varieties of hops (favoured by 'craft' brewers) are vastly more expensive to buy though! At a 'meet the brewer' session at our local recently, a local brewer said that he was having to alter his recipes because certain varieties of hop which he used to use were being bought up in advance by the likes of BrewDog etc. and he couldn't get them any more (or at least not at a reasonable price).

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    1. As I said in the linked blogpost, while the hops in some beers may cost a lot more than others, it's still pretty trivial as a proportion of the total price. I quoted an analysis, from a craft brewer, stating that the direct brewing costs of a typical beer, including materials, were no more than 30p per pint.

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    2. That sounds fair for a small volume brewer. I made an educated guess a few years ago that Sam Smiths ingredient costs were 8p/pint and at the time Carling was costing Coors between 4 and 5p although if it was less I wouldn't be surprised.

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    3. It's total direct brewing costs including energy, water etc., not just ingredients.

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    4. Does that 30p/pint also factor what their labor, utility, bottling/canning & other operational costs are? In terms of just the actual ingredients used as water of course is the main ingredient, yeah I can see 30p/pint + or - being the liquid cost, but not factoring other real expenses a brewery has. Also, for a smaller brewery, they don't have the economies of scale of a larger brewery so their total COG is much higher like if they have to pay for mobile canning which is way more expensive than if they owned their own canning line.

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  5. All the Brewdog beers are good - they are a welcome addition to the beer world. Thornbridge's Jaipur is fabulous on draught but in bottles/cans it's not so fabulous, and all their other bottled beers are much the same. I tried (too) many of their beer range on draught one night in the Greystones, Sheffield - Thornbridge's own pub. The draught stuff is much better than the bottled.
    The Camden beers taste of nothing, they might as well be Coors or Budweiser.

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  6. Are craft enthusiasts and wine snobs any different? They all want to be better than the plebs.

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    1. The Stafford Mudgie28 October 2019 at 00:19

      Ian,
      Both are better spenders than us plebs - or they would be if they drank more regularly.

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  7. I could agree because I do. Supermarkets are not evil. They are respectable businesses that obey the law, pay their taxes and provide value to customers. The shareholders are pension funds that promise a secure future to millions. I’m assuming this was prompted by Curtis’s latest about evil Waitrose flogging the craft too cheap? Whilst Curtis is as usual wrong about evil Waitrose, I’m gonna attempt to defend his position from rational stance.

    I’m going to say it is rational for a beer enthusiast who values the independent supply chain to support it as a customer. It may be rational self interest to obtain the best value for the lowest price, but it is enlightened self interest to see a value in one supply chain over another if you think the success of one offers you a longer-term benefit. For supermarkets it’s all just product, just sku’s. They’ll sell anything they think they can get a margin on. There is no love, no enthusiasm which they share with you. So why not give your money to those that share your love and values?

    Likewise, if you have done this over the years. Pay over the odds to support an independent. You may feel aggrieved if they sell out and you subsequently realise, they did not share your love and enthusiasm and it was all about the money after all. That your premium, that you paid, was simply their overvaluation on equity. Might annoy you a bit.

    It is unfair and wrong to blame supermarkets or Wetherspoons. Likewise, it’s unfair to have a pop at none enthusiast customers just after a good deal. That’s just the market. It’s like ranting at the sea because it goes in and out. But it is rational if you are an enthusiast to behave with enlightened self intertest toward your longer-term requirements.

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    1. But if you want it to remain exclusive, by definition you don't want it to grow. There does seem to be a lot of tall poppy syndrome in the craft beer community.

      And the customers who will keep it exclusive won't necessarily last for ever. The Morgan car company once had a ten-year waiting list, but it later almost went bankrupt. I think a lot of the customers died before they could take delivery of their cars.

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    2. Maybe so, but electric pics points out below, everyone is aware of supermarket commercial practice. If you are a brewer you'd know that going down the volume low margin route is choosing a different route to the independent supply chain and you cannot expect to sell through that channel at a higher price as well. It's one or the other. You make your choices.

      I'm surprised craft is still going. Most fads have about ten years. By then the students are mortgaged, kidded & paying stuff off. A new generation of kids have found their own fad. Maybe the failure of them to buy a house and grow up is prolonging it.

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  8. Well said Cookie. If I bought craft cans though, I'd buy them at Tesco. They at least are helping pay interest and value to my savings as you point out.

    See you down the pub for cask.

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  9. No business is forced to deal with supermarkets. They sup with the devil out of choice and willingly accept onerous terms of business in exchange for small margins but massively increased volumes which gives them improved economies of scale and purchasing power. It's a calculated risk. Then, people blame supermarkets for selling cheap drink, but brewers make it possible.

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  10. I well remember rock musos being upset when Uriah Heep appeared on Top of the Pops. As for Genesis having a string of hit singles when Phil Collins took the helm - beyond the pale for some fans.

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  11. It will keep coming down in price...link IPA is the new Carling

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